China Papers

 

Date of Pub (y/m/d) Primary Author Full Title Key Areas Main Observations
20130501 Swaine, Michael D. et al - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace China's Military & the US-Japan Alliance in 2030: A Strategic Net Assessment US
Japan
The 422-page study examines the complex interactions of the US-Japan-China relationship in the future. Using scenarios and trend projections, it examines the complex interactions of different developments and reactions among the three countries, and illuminates probable shifts in the strategic landscape of northeast Asia.
20130416 China People's Liberation Army (PLA)  China's Defence WP 2013: "The Diversified Employment of China's Armed Forces" Defence The 47-page Chinese Defence White Paper (and pdf with appendices) elaborates its new security concept and the peacetime employment of armed forces.  Word e-doc available.
20130401 Odgaard, Liselotte Between Integration and Coexistence: US-Chinese Strategies of International Order Strategy
US
The 15-page paper discusses the US's integration approach and China's coexistence approach to international order. It examines US and Chinese strategies for implementing these programs and the implications they have on the US's ability to manage its relations with China. According to the author, these programs lead to an unpredictable international environment which means the US needs to be able to perform swift policy adjustments and have considerable freedom of action.
20130401 Wolfe, Wojtek M. China's Strategic Hedging Taiwan
Hedging
The 14-page paper examines China's efforts to gain regional influence by utilizing a mix of energy investments and military modernization efforts. First, China seeks to hedge its economic growth potential against the threat of energy source disruption.  Second, it seeks to limit or deny access to areas of operations within the first island chain, effectively expanding their core strategic zone of interest within the South China Sea. Third, China wants to establish the Taiwan Strait as a ‘no-go’ zone preventing US interference in the event of another Taiwan crisis.  Its use of strategic hedging as an insurance policy carries a high financial and diplomatic premium.
20130322 Harder, Peter Canada-China: Opportunities in Transition Canada The 5-page transcript identifies Harper's "diversification" as an important transition with China, and concludes that Canada must become more strategic in its policy intent and more coordinated in its actions, while mitigating risks and building on opportunities with China.
20130108 Logan, Justin China, America, and the Pivot to Asia Strategy
Security
US
Hedging
The 22-page paper recommends offloading responsibility (i.e., offshore balancing) for hedging against Chinese aggression to like-minded countries in the region and  shows that those countries are capable of doing so.
20120829 Christensen, Thomas J. The Meaning of the Nuclear Evolution: China's Strategic Modernization and US-China Security Relations US
Strategy
Security
Escalation
The 38-page paper discusses any impact the development of a new generation of nuclear weapons will have on US-China security relations, including whether or not Chinese leaders believe that they are only now acquiring a secure second strike capability; the scope of coercive power that secure second strike capability provides to conventionally inferior actors; the meaning of China’s ‘No First Use’ doctrine; and the prospects for escalation control in future crises. Applying Cold War theories and tapping Chinese doctrinal writings, it concludes that China’s nuclear modernization program might prove more consequential than is commonly believed.
20120801 Segal, Hugh Canada and China: Take Nothing for Granted Canada The 2-page article warns Canada to take nothing for granted, not even the proposed purchase of a Canadian oil company with global reach by a state-controlled Chinese oil company .
20120801 Saunders, Phillip C. and
Wiseman, Joshua K.
Buy, Build or Steal: China's Quest for Advanced Aviation Technologies People's Liberation Army
Air Force (PLAAF)
The 53-page chapter, from The Chinese Air Force: Evolving Concepts, Roles, and Capabilities, explores the effectiveness of reforms undertaken by the PLAAF to modernize its air force. Although China continues to lag behind the world’s most sophisticated air forces, it has moved over time from absolute reliance on other countries for military aviation technology procurement to a position where a more diverse array of strategies can be pursued. The analysis focuses primarily on China's efforts to acquire, produce, and develop fighter aircraft and related technology, and also includes some discussion of bombers, transports, and airborne early warning aircraft.
20120801 Shlapak, David Equipping the PLAAF: The Long March to Modernity PLAAF The 21-page chapter, from The Chinese Air Force: Evolving Concepts, Roles, and Capabilities, addresses one aspect of the PLAAF's ongoing evolution: its aircraft and weapons. The PLAAF will soon have the ability to credibly challenge the US over the nearby waters of the Taiwan Strait, if it is not capable already. However, the PLAAF's ability to project airpower against a first-rate adversary in an arena farther from China’s shores—over the South China Sea or beyond—remains more doubtful, although this could change in the next decade.
20120801 Edited by:

Hallion, Richard P.,
Cliff, Roger and
Saunders, Phillip C.
The Chinese Air Force: Evolving Concepts, Roles, and Capabilities
PLAAF This 428-page book provides insights into Chinese air force capabilities and the trajectory of the air balance across the Taiwan Strait and in the Western Pacific. Drawing from insights of international experts, the 14 chapters shed light on where the Chinese air force is today, where it has come from, and most importantly, where it is headed. The book's four parts–concepts; organization, leadership and doctrine; equipment, personnel, and education/training; and industries and military implications–assess the progress China has made in modernizing its air force, and consider the ways China might employ air power in the future.
20120801 Frelinger, David and
Hart, Jessica
The US-China Military Balance Seen in a Three-Game Framework PLAAF
US
The 23-page chapter, from The Chinese Air Force: Evolving Concepts, Roles, and Capabilities, presents an alternative framework for approaching the discussion and assessment of the "military balance" between the US and China. The framework assesses PLAAF modernization through the lenses of three "games"—the Game of Influence, the Battle over a Third Party, and the Great Power Game—that represent the range of relationships the US and China could forge. The analysis demonstrates that the effect of PLAAF modernization is most fully understood as a series of moves occurring in the context of the game or games the US and China are playing.
20120717 Swaine, Michael D. Chinese Leadership and Elite Responses to the US Pacific Pivot Strategy
US
The 15-page article looks at the Chinese reactions to Washington’s increased stress on Asia, including Chinese assessments of the perceived implications of this policy shift for the region and for China in particular.
20120525 Beldon, WGCDR James The Chinese Threat to US Interests in the Asia-Pacific Region and Implications for US Defence Arrangements with Southeast Asia and Japan US
Strategy
The 18-page paper examines China's strategy in the region, the catalysts that may lead to confrontation and the difficulties the US has in developing its defence ties with its Southeast Asian partners and Japan.
20120518 Nilsson, Fredrik Securitizing China's 'Peaceful Rise:' An Empirical Study of the US Approach to Chinese Trade Practices, Military Modernization and Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea US
Security
The 50-page paper believes that the US relationship with China has proven difficult to manage, and major differing opinions on economics, politics and security have contributed to tensions between the two powers. By employing mainly securitization theory and theories of hegemony, the aim is to illustrate how the US approach to China’s military modernization and economic development, in some cases, has led to the securitization of important strategic parts of China’s rise. Through empirical analysis focusing on the cases of freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, China’s A2 capabilities, and currency and trade practices, this unique historical context has created conditions that have put the US in a vulnerable position, which has, in turn, facilitated the securitization of China’s rise.
20120118 McGrath, Bryan and Walton, Timothy A. China's Three Warfares US The 10-page Special Report summarizes Three Warfares (psychological, media, and legal) and US government attention brought to bear on it, ordinates the concept’s place in Chinese military theory, explains the concept’s three components (using case studies), and evaluates the prospects for Three Warfares’ employment and effectiveness. For a more in-depth examination of this subject, see Professor Stefan Halper's May 2013 paper titled China: The Three Warfares.
20111201 Peifer, Douglas C. China, the German Analogy, and the New AirSea Operational Concept A2AD
Blockade
ASB
US
The 18-page article examines the assumptions that lead China alarmists to dismiss America’s ability to impose a distant blockade as an inadequate counter to Chinese A2AD systems, and it concludes that a distant blockade is indeed a viable, lower cost strategy that capitalizes on US strengths and China’s weaknesses.
20111114 Wishik, Anton Lee II An Anti-Access Approximation: The PLA's Active Strategic Counterattacks on Exterior Lines A2AD
ASCEL
Strategy
US
The 10-page paper examines US assessments of China’s strategy, Chinese strategic literature, analyses the PLA’s “Active Strategic Counterattacks on Exterior Lines” (ASCEL) operations and compares A2AD and ASCEL.
20111101 Dobbins, James et al - RAND Cooperation Conflict with China: Prospects, Consequences, and Strategies for Deterrence US
Strategy
A2AD
Cyber
Escalation
The 11-page paper examines the sources of conflict most likely to cause a China-US military clash over the next 30 years; the operational implications these scenarios might present the US and the resultant requirements for defence and deterrence; and the capabilities the US will need to maintain to ensure that a conflict with China does not occur; and conclude with a long-term strategy for dealing with the challenges posed by a rising China.
20110801 Cheng, His-hua The Employment of Airpower in the Taiwan Strait Taiwan The 19-page chapter, from The Chinese Air Force: Evolving Concepts, Roles, and Capabilities, examines Chinese air campaign invasion scenarios of Taiwan. It is argued that all PLA military action against Taiwan will surely be led by airpower, and to effect the subjugation of Taiwan control of the air must be achieved.
20110101 Flaherty, Michael P. The Chinese Air Force Contribution to Anti-access PLAAF
US
A2
The 7-page paper discusses the formulation of China’s access-denial strategy, as well as the PLAAF's transition to an offensive and defensive doctrine, and how developing PLAAF capabilities, doctrine, and training combine to support an access-denial strategy with acknowledged implications for US power projection.
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