Long Papers

 

Date of Pub (y/m/d) Primary Author Full Title Key Areas Main Observations
20140304 US DOD 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR)  - NEW US Joint China The 88-page US QDR directs a reduction in force structure to protect and expand critical capabilities in order to protect the homeland, build security globally, and project power and win decisively.
20131231 Solomon, Jonathan F. Demystifying Conventional Deterrence Great-Power Conflict and East Asian Peace  - NEW Blockade ASB
US
China
The 41-page paper assesses the implications for a coercive blockading strategy, as a prime alternative China might employ for aggression or the US for retaliation. It explores the importance of reassuring an opponent that visible implementation of a deterrence policy reflects defensive and not aggressive aims, as well as the potential utility of Sino-US military-centric confidence-building measures toward those ends. After dissecting the nature of the East Asian security dilemma and alliance dynamics, it proposes how a viable and credible US conventional deterrence policy might be configured.
20131130 Kearn, David W. Jr. ASB and China's Anti-access and Area Denial Challenge  - NEW ASB
A2AD China
This 15-page paper suggests the challenge presented by China’s military modernization has seemingly altered the conventional balance in the Western Pacific, with significant implications for U.S. national security policy, and, thus, deserves the focus of planners and decision-makers.
20131101 Thomas, Jim et al - Center for Strategic & Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) Gateway to the Indo-Pacific: Australian Defense Strategy and the Future of the Australia-US Alliance Australia
US
Strategy
This 42-page paper examines the state of the U.S.-Australia military alliance, detailing the geopolitical shifts currently underway in Australia’s immediate neighborhood and outlining the extent to which these developments signal the advent of a new era.  The report provides a succinct overview of ongoing debates and examines three different schools of thought in Australia: the Alliance Minimalist School, the Alliance Maximalist School, and the Incrementalist School.  Many of the traditional assumptions at the heart of Australian strategic culture are in the process of being overturned, and the U.S.-Australia alliance is increasingly perceived as a bedrock for sustained regional stability.  Building on these observations, the report offers four ways in which Australia could make greater contributions to regional security and deterrence.
20130801 Loosley, (Chair) Stephen Agenda for Change: Strategic Choices for the Next Government (ASPI Strategy) Australia
Strategy
The 56-page report contains five separate papers (titled Strategic Policy, Defence, Homeland Security, Foreign Policy, and Economic Security) aimed to thoroughly brief the incoming elected government on Sep 7th.
20130801 Manicom, James Sources of Tension in the Asia-Pacific: Strategic Competition, Divided Regionalism and Non-traditional Security Challenges Australia
Canada
US
China
The 9-page paper discusses the rise of China, decline of the US hegemony, sources of regional uncertainty, and a number of non-traditional security challenges, including energy and food insecurity, and cyber security.
20130701 Shambaugh, David Assessing the US "Pivot" to Asia US
Strategy
The 9-page paper discusses the US “return,” strategic “pivot,” or “rebalancing” to Asia, without “abandoning” long-standing commitments elsewhere in the world, and takes stock of this new strategic initiative by viewing it historically, describing its different components, and assessing the positive possibilities and potential pitfalls. 
20130701 Reilly, Benjamin Australia as a Southern Hemisphere Power (ASPI Strategic Insights) Australia
Strategy
Security
The 15-page paper discusses Australia's 'soft' power realms and the different ways Australian power is being projected across the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in relation to new links with Africa and South America.
20130701 Kraig, Michael and Perkowski, LTCOL Leon Shaping Air and Sea Power for the "Asian Pivot": Military Planning to Support Limited Geopolitical Objectives Strategy
Security
China
USA
ASB
The 19-page paper offers a conceptual framework for how the US should prepare to use military power during peacetime deterrence, protracted crises, and war to resolve conflicting interests with another powerful state, such as China, when both powers also have substantial interconnected interests.
20130701 Ross, Robert US Grand Strategy, the Rise of China, and US National Security Strategy for East Asia Strategy
Security 
The 18-page paper examines implications of the pivot strategy for balancing the rise of China and the long-term prospects for US security and regional stability.
20130612 Etzioni, Amitai Who Authorized Preparations for War With China? US
ASB
China
The 12-page paper argues that the US's "pivot" to Asia does not constitute an endorsement, let alone the implementation of the ASB concept, and that it is time for the White House and Congress to reassess both the threat and the suggested response.
20130601 Bassett, (Editor) Marvin An Approach Toward an Asia-Pacific Strategy 2012 to 2020 US
Strategy
Australia
Canada
India
Japan
Russia
Indonesia
The 200-page regionally focused study is written at the strategic level to inform and guide USAF leadership over the next eight years. Further, the study is designed to provide an overarching strategy as the US rebalances from Europe and Southwest Asia to the Asia-Pacific region.  It is neither a global strategy nor solely about China; it is not based upon containment but upon engagement across the region.
20130530 Thomson, Mark The Cost of Defence - ASPI Defence Budget Brief 2013-14 Australia
Defence
The 262-page, nine chapter analysis aims to inform discussion and scrutiny of the latest Australian Defence budget and the policy choices it entails.
20130506 US DOD  Annual Report to Congress - Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China 2013 (i.e., the 2013 US DOD China Report) China
US
The 92-page report continues a tradition of detailed, public-available US government analysis.  China’s interests have grown and as it has gained greater influence in the international system, its military modernization has also become increasingly focused on investments in military capabilities to conduct a wider range of missions beyond its immediate territorial concerns.  Some of these missions and capabilities can address international security challenges, while others could serve more narrowly-defined PRC interests and objectives, including advancing territorial claims and building influence abroad.  For the first time, the Pentagon officially accuses the Chinese of launching cyber attacks against the US DOD.
20130503 Australia Defence Defence White Paper 2013 Australia
Defence
The 148-page Defence White Paper 2013 outlines the capabilities that the ADF will need in the coming years to address strategic challenges, as well as addresses the range of significant international and domestic developments since 2009, which influence Australia’s national security and defence settings, including their impact on force posture, future force structure and the Defence budget.
20130501 US ASB Office Air Sea Battle: Service Collaboration to Address Anti-Access & Area Denial Challenges ASB
A2AD
The is a 13-page unclassified summary of the classified ASB Concept, version 9.0, and the ASB Master Implementation Plan, dated September 2012.
20130401 Schreer, Benjamin Planning the Unthinkable War: 'ASB' and Its Implications for Australia (ASPI Strategy) Australia
ASB
Strategy
The 44-page study addresses some key questions about ASB: Is it feasible?  Does it make strategic sense?  How do key allies and partners in Northeast and Southeast Asia view the concept, and what role could they play?  What could and should be Australia’s specific contributions to ASB?
20130212 Mirski, Sean Stranglehold: The Context, Conduct and Consequences of an American Naval Blockade of China Blockade
China
OC
The 17-page publication suggests: "The mounting challenge posed by China’s military modernization has highlighted the need for the US to analyse its ability to execute a naval blockade. A blockade strategy is viable, but it would be limited to a narrow context: the US would have to be engaged in a protracted conflict over vital interests, and it would need the support of key regional powers. The US would also need to implement a mix between a close and distant blockade in order to avoid imperilling the conflict’s strategic context. If enacted, a blockade could exact a ruinous cost on the Chinese economy and state."
20130201 Kraig, Michael The Continuing Political Value of "Denial of Enemy Aims" ASB
US
China
The 24-page paper seeks to answer one question: How should the US prepare to use military power during peacetime deterrence, protracted crises, and even war to resolve conflicting interests with China, when both powers also have substantial shared and interconnected interests?
20130123 Australian Government Strong and Secure: A Strategy for Australia's National Security Australia
Strategy
Security
The 58-page document—Australia's first National Security Strategy—describes its national security objectives and explains how they are achieving such.  It provides a framework to focus national security efforts in this period of change, and communicates how Australia perceives its security environment and is tackling the major challenges.
20130101 Hoffman, F.G. Forward Partnership: A Sustainable American Strategy US
Strategy
Offshore Balancing
The 20-page paper identifies several strategies— particularly Offshore Balancing—that have been offered to better balance US ends, ways and means, but these alternatives suffer from policy, historical and implementation challenges. A hybrid solution, Forward Partnering, avoids these deficiencies and is presented as an alternative strategy.
20121201 Alcazar, Col Vincent Crisis Management and the Anti-Access/Area Denial Problem A2AD The 26-page paper describes the A2AD concept and the nature of the problem, amplifies the A2AD strategy, and offers a crisis management design framework c/w planning considerations for the future of A2AD.
20121109 Kainikara, Sanu Security Challenges to South-East Asia and the Prospects of Conflict Security
Australia
The 12-page paper examines the global geostrategic outlook from an Australian perspective by elaborating on five primary factors that directly affect Australia's perceptions of national security.
20121101 Cooley, Brendan A Sea of Change or a Wave of Backlash? The South China Sea and Changing Power Dynamics in Southeast Asia China
US
The 20-page paper outlines the strategic and institutional conflict, provides projections for how it might be resolved in the future, and outlines policy prescriptions for the US.
20121101 Satake, Tomohiko and
Ishihara, Yusuke
America's Rebalance to Asia and its Implications for Japan-US-Australia Security Cooperation US
Australia
Japan
Security
The 19-page paper examines how the US's greater focus on Asia changes the nature of the Japan-US-Australia security partnership, specifically asserting that, in the era of rebalance, Japan, the United States, and Australia have not only deepened their existing cooperation, but also have expanded potential areas of cooperation toward a more “dynamic” partnership.
20121101 Majid, Munir Southeast Asia between China and the United States US
China
The 16-page paper discussed the evolving new strategic reality in Southeast Asia, driven by China's economic rise against a background of the US' foreign policy adventurism and its economic decline.
20121022 O'Rourke, Ronald - US Congressional Research Service Maritime Territorial and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) Disputes Involving China: Issues for Congress US
China
The 70-page report presents policy and oversight issues for the US Congress arising from maritime territorial disputes involving China in the South China Sea (SCS) and East China Sea (ECS); and an additional dispute over whether China has a right under international law to regulate US and other foreign military activities in its 200-nautical-mile maritime EEZ.
20121001 Australian Government Australia in the Asian Century White Paper Australia The 320-page document identifies five key areas in order to succeed in the Asian century.  Chapters 1 to 4 explain the extraordinary rise of Asia over recent decades and its likely future to 2025 (Figure 1). They examine Australia’s place in Asia and its outlook to 2025. This sets the scene for a roadmap for Australia in the Asian century.  Chapters 5 to 9 set out an ambitious set of national objectives and pathways to guide Australia to 2025 (Figure 2). Advancing and implementing these national objectives sets the agenda for taking full advantage of the Asian century, but achieving these objectives will require a concerted and coordinated effort from the entire community.
20120901 Kelly, Justin Fighting China - Air Sea Battle and Australia ASB
A2AD
Australia
The 11-page paper examines the origins and implications for Australia of the US concept ASB. It argues that the US preparations for ASB will shape warfare in Australia’s region and will require a refocusing of the preparation of the ADF.
20120901 L'Estrange, Michael The Asia White Paper: Key Priorities and Some Potential Pitfalls Australia The 6-page paper suggests the "White Paper on Australia in the Asian Century" will maximise its prospects—by highlighting how Asia’s changing dynamics are likely to shape Australia’s national interests—if it avoids two potential pitfalls and if it keeps three specific priorities as guiding lights.
20120801 White, Hugh The China Choice: Why America Should Share Power [extract only] US
China
Hard Copy Book Only.  As China's economy grows to become the world's largest, the 194-page book considers three choices for the US in the Asian century: it can compete, share power or concede leadership in Asia.  It is argued that America's best option is to share power with China and relinquish its supremacy.
20120801 Kiley, Gregory T. and
Szechenyi, Nicholas F. - Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS)
US Force Posture Strategy in the Asia Pacific Region: An Independent Assessment Strategy
Security
US
China
The 126-page examines current and emerging US national security interests, the strategic setting from Russia to New Zealand and Australia to China and Japan, four options for US force posture in the Asia Pacific region, and concludes with three findings and five recommendations.
20120701 Quintana, Elizabeth,
Mackowski, Joanne and
Smith, Adam
Cross-Domain Operations and Interoperability A2AD
ASB
This paper will examine the concepts, capabilities and force structures necessary for cross-domain operations and interoperability, and how they might apply to smaller militaries.
20120701 Lyon, Rod Strategic Contours: The Rise of Asia and Australian Strategic Policy (ASPI Strategy) Australia
Strategy
The 35-page paper argues that Australian strategy needs is a better matrix to guide policy, in particular policy towards a transformational Asia that rests upon three factors: a sound understanding of the region and its likely future(s), an appreciation of our own possible role as a regional actor, and a willingness to accept—or surmount—the constraints that currently limit our role.
20120701 Christensen, Kyle Strategic Developments in the Western Pacific: Anti-Access/Area Denial and the ASB Concept ASB
A2AD
Canada
The 24-page paper assesses the ASB concept’s utility from a coalition perspective, and the central importance of ASW operations to the success of the ASB.
20120512 Rumley, (Editor) Dennis The Indian Ocean Region: Security, Stability and Sustainability in the 21st Century Australia
India
Security
The 130-page paper discusses the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean region (IOR), analyses the numerous security challenges in the IOR, considers the roles of India and Australia in Indo-Pacific security, and evaluates various policy and research implications and options.
20120401 Takahashi, Sugio Counter A2AD in Japan-US Defense Cooperation: Toward 'Allied ASB' A2AD
Japan
US
The 9-page paper seeks to address the potential challenges posed by a rising China and trends in Japanese strategic thinking based on Japan's National Defense Program Guidelines,  released in December 2010, and then concludes with recommendations for the next phase of defence cooperation under the rubric of “allied ASB.”
20120301 US DOD  Gaining and Maintaining Access: An Army-Marine Corps Concept US Joint
A2
Land
Marine
The 20-page Army-Marine Corps concept describes their unique contributions to the JFC's ability to project and sustain power, anywhere in the world, in the face of growing challenges to access and entry.
20120301 Kainikara, Sanu The Security Environment in the Asia-Pacific: An Australian Perspective Australia
Strategy
Security
The 10-page paper examines Australia's strategic interests and outlook from a strategic perspective and puts forth some views on its security perceptions.
20120117 US DOD  Joint Operational Access
Concept (JOAC)
US Joint
A2AD
ASB
Defence
The 39-page JOAC (and two annexes) proposes a concept for how US joint forces will achieve operational access in the face of armed opposition.  Other concepts dealing with more specific aspects of A2AD challenges, such as the ASB concept, are nested within this overarching concept. Future joint forces will leverage cross-domain synergy—the complementary vice merely additive employment of capabilities in different domains such that each enhances the effectiveness and compensates for the vulnerabilities of the others—to establish superiority in some combination of domains to provide the necessary freedom of action.
20111201 Gunzinger, Mark and
Dougherty. Chris - Center for Strategic & Budgetary Assessments (CSBA)
Outside-In: Operating from Range to Defeat Iran’s Anti-Access and Area-Denial Threats A2AD
US
Iran
The 99-page paper suggests that Iran will pursue an asymmetric "hybrid" A2AD strategy that mixes advanced technology with guerilla tactics to deny US forces basing access and maritime freedom of manoeuvre.  As part of an "outside-in" enabling operational concept, the paper proposes three lines of operation to prevent Iran's A2AD strategy, and concludes by describing options for developing a forward base posture to support an enabling operational concept. 
20110601 Angevine, John E. Dangerous Luxuries: How the Quest for High-end Capabilities Leaves the ADF Vulnerable to Mission Failure and More Dependent on the US Australia
US
The 11-page paper argues that Australia’s current defence strategy does not correspond with the realities of Australia’s security situation; its plan for the modernisation of the ADF is focused on expensive maritime and air capabilities for conflicts it could not fight alone; and, as such, the ADF is exposed with an atrophying ground force and expeditionary capability for the low-level regional operations in which it will be most likely to engage.
20110504 Walsh, Maj Brendan P. Access Denied: Future Military Operations in an Anti-Access Environment A2AD
ASB
China
The 20-page paper defines the categories of A2AD threat and provides operational examples for each. It explains a potential operational concept designed to overcome the A2AD threat called ASB. The ASB concept emphasizes joint and multinational operations as a means to integrate the capabilities of the U.S. Navy, U.S. Air Force, and multinational partners to counter the growing A2AD threat, specifically in response to China's increasing military potential. It concludes with possible counterarguments and discusses recent Chinese weapon system developments to highlight the importance of the A2AD threat on operational planning.
20110501 Rehman, Iskander From Down Under to Top Center: Australia, The United States, and This Century's Special Relationship ASB
US
Australia
Strategy
The 30-page paper will examine Australia's role in an enlarged ASB framework, and argue that Australia will indeed emerge as the US’ strongest ally in the Asia-Pacific region, and that this solidifying strategic convergence will have an immensely positive influence on regional developments and stability in Asia.
20110208 US DOD  The National Military Strategy of the USA 2011: Redefining America's Military Leadership US Joint The 24-page US military strategy aims to provide the ways and means by which its military will advance enduring national interests as articulated in the 2010 National Security Strategy and to accomplish the defence objectives in the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review.
20110201 Babbage, Ross Australia's Strategic Edge in 2030 Australia
Security
China
Land
(Exec Sum only) The 118-page paper suggests that Australia and its close allies should not seek to confront China unless forced to do so by extreme People’s Liberation Army (PLA) actions. Rather, the intent should be to offset and balance the PLA’s more threatening force developments and operations, deter adventurism and work to restore regional confidence.  Further, the paper presents four primary options for Australia's national security structure in 2030, and identifies a number of additional reforms.
20100518 van Tol, Jan et al - Center for Strategic & Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) Air Sea Battle: A Point-of-Departure Operational Concept ASB
A2AD
China
The 98-page paper (and two tabs) contends that the US military today faces an emerging major operational challenge as the fielding of robust A2AD systems will make the current "American way of war" increasingly risky and, in some cases and contexts, prohibitively costly. It will require integrating many of the Air Force and Navy operations central to successful operation in an A2AD environment.  It concludes with comments on the key elements comprising an ASB concept, and reflects on what it might take to implement it, including support efforts with Japan and Australia.
20100501 US 2010 National Security Strategy US The 60-page document is focused on renewing US leadership to more effectively advance its interests in the 21st century.  It reaffirms a commitment to pursue its interests through an international system in which all nations have certain rights and responsibilities.
20100219 Krepinevich, Andrew F. - Center for Strategic & Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) Why Air Sea Battle? ASB
A2AD
China
The 27-page paper argues that an Air Force-Navy ASB concept is needed.  It goes on to describe how China and Iran are engaged in military modernization efforts whose principal purpose appears to be to deny the United States the ability to sustain military forces in two areas of vital interest, the Western Pacific and the Persian Gulf, respectively.
20100201 US DOD  2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) Report US Joint
ASB
A2AD
China
The 128-page US QDR directs more focus and investment in the ASB concept, long-range strike, space and cyberspace, among other conventional and strategic modernization programs.
20100101 Australia Defence The Strategy Framework 2010 Australia
Strategy
Defence
The 82-page document seeks to synchronise the formulation of strategic guidance, strategic planning for operations, international engagement, preparedness management and capability development. It aims to guide planners to create strategic-level documents that are congruent, coherent, and comprehensive.
20090401 White, Hugh A Focused Force - Australia's Defence Priorities in the Asian Century Australia
Defence
The 43-page Lowy Institute Paper discusses the specific choices and decisions that Government faces in producing a new Defence White Paper for Australia in 2009.
20090115 US DOD  Capstone Concept for Joint Operations, Version 3.0 US Joint The 44-page US joint concept describes in broad terms how its joint force circa 2016-2028 will operate in response to a wide variety of security challenges.
20080618 Canada DND Canada First Defence Strategy Canada
Strategy
Defence
The 22-page CFDS provides a detailed road map for the modernization of the Canadian Forces, including a description of its three roles and six core missions.
20030520 Krepinevich, Andrew F. et al - Center for Strategic & Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) Meeting the Anti-Access and Area-Denial Challenge A2AD
US
The 95-page paper examines new challenges to US power projection (circa 2003), and the substantial disconnects between individual Service solutions to the A2AD challenge supports a joint approach to mitigating the prospective A2AD capabilities of future US adversaries.
19960401 Meilinger, Col Phillip S. Ten Propositions: Emerging Airpower Air Power The 16-page paper discusses 10 propositions regarding air power with the intent to better inform those people who employ military power and allow them to achieve objectives established by their country’s leaders.
19920501 Stavridis, James Cmdr A New Air Sea Battle Concept: Integrated Strike Forces ASB The 31-page paper is the first mention of an ASB concept; in this instance, it centred on an immediately deployable, highly capable, and fully integrated force–an Integrated Strike Force.
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