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Air and Space Power Conference 2024 Transcript: Threat casting to Develop Sustainable Readiness and Resilience by Professor Peter Dean, PhD, SFHEAL

Both the Air and Space domains play important roles in facing current geopolitical challenges.

Access to foreign bases has long been a critical enabler of the ADF, and ongoing access will be key to Australia’s future security. In the past, these Forward Operating Bases (FOB) were considered relatively secure, however continual improvements to the range and accuracy of missiles acquired by adversarial militaries have made these bases attractive targets, being the seemingly soft underbelly of western militaries.

In order to continue utilisation of FOBs, and to guarantee the safety of deployed forces, the ADF cannot remain idle to the threat of advanced air and missile attacks. As such Australia must look to develop its Air and Missile Defence (AMD) capabilities in order to remain secure in future operations.

The aim of the essay is to discuss a range of AMD design and operating concepts to inform the development of an ADF Integrated AMD (IAMD) capability.

This essay will be structured into four key areas: western nations’ historical and future reliance on FOBs to project power; the emerging threat of powerful state and non-state actors; Australia’s response to emerging air and missile threats; and, IAMD design and operational concepts in an Australian context.

Tactical Air Intelligence will face a crisis of relevance in conflicts of the future.

Air forces have long demonstrated warfighting effectiveness through the lethal application of air power in the battlefield.

In September 2015, Russia sent its military forces to Syria in response to a request by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for help to suppress a civ