The Kestrel Papers series is one of several publications produced by the Air and Space Power Centre (ASPC). While the others include monographs and academic papers, the Kestrel Papers hold a special place by offering an opportunity for emerging scholars to explore contemporary topics.
"As the conflict in Ukraine rages on, military professionals around the world are reconsidering the value of entrenched doctrine. It is not just new technologies, but the way
they are being exploited by ingenious innovators on one side and a behemoth military that seems incapable of adapting on the other. Change is a constant, but adapting faster
than one’s adversary is essential.
While the greatest military thinkers study warfare—rather than wars—the rate of change in this current conflict is so rapid that there is merit in examining the paradigm shifts in just the first 12 months. The following collection of lessons from Ukraine are offered as conversation starters rather than definitive conclusions. Remarkably, they are the observations of the Australian Defence Force’s newest members—midshipmen and officer cadets from the Australian Defence Force Academy. These observations are based purely on the opening 12 months and predate the conflict's developments from mid-2023 onwards.
While the 2024 Kestrel Papers appear as standalone observations centred on specific aspects of the conflict, an underlying theme permeates them all. In particular, there appears to be a paradigm shift from legacy thinking around individual domain supremacy to not just integrated warfare but national power. And while innovation has a longhistory on the battlefield, it is often limited to isolated technological breakthroughs rather than systemic mindset shifts. While one side of the Ukrainian war is fighting a war of choice, the other has its backs against the wall in a war of national survival. In the first 12 months, at least, one side demonstrated unwavering deference to legacy doctrine, while the other had no choice but to adapt or die."